As leaders prepare to gather for the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, China is making strategic diplomatic overtures in the region—most notably, by reaffirming its alliance with Indonesia. On Sunday, Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrived in Jakarta to meet with newly elected Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, in a move widely viewed as a deliberate effort to shore up bilateral relations ahead of crucial multilateral talks.
The visit, which culminated in the signing of eight bilateral agreements, reinforced the momentum behind an already significant partnership between Asia’s largest economy and Southeast Asia’s most populous nation. The agreements span a broad spectrum—from tourism and health to investment and media—illustrating the breadth and depth of the two countries’ cooperative ambitions.
This meeting is not only a sign of strengthened diplomatic and economic ties, but also a reflection of how both nations are navigating an increasingly turbulent geopolitical landscape. With China seeking to maintain its regional influence amid rising global scrutiny and Indonesia asserting its independence and sovereignty, the dialogue in Jakarta offers important insights into how the balance of power in Southeast Asia may evolve in the months to come.
A Diplomatic Gesture with Strategic Timing
Premier Li Qiang’s visit comes just a month after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s high-profile tour of Southeast Asia—an itinerary that pointedly did not include Indonesia. While no official reason was provided for Jakarta’s exclusion, analysts speculated that strained maritime relations and Indonesia’s cautious balancing act between global powers may have played a role.
Li Qiang’s visit appears to be a diplomatic reset, signaling Beijing’s recognition of Indonesia’s critical role in the region. With the ASEAN Summit poised to address complex issues—ranging from economic recovery and digital transformation to maritime security—China’s outreach seems both timely and tactically calculated.
“China is prepared to work hand-in-hand with Indonesia to sustain our tradition of friendship, and to promote solidarity and cooperation in the region,” Premier Li said during a joint press conference.
President Prabowo, who assumed office earlier this year following a contentious but peaceful election, responded with a warm endorsement of the partnership: “Indonesia is ready to strengthen its cooperation with China to help build a peaceful and secure region for all. We believe in open dialogue, shared growth, and mutual respect.”
Building on an Already Strong Economic Foundation
In recent years, the economic relationship between China and Indonesia has grown at an impressive pace. China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner and a key investor, particularly in critical infrastructure and natural resources.
Perhaps nowhere is this more visible than in the nickel sector. Indonesia, which holds some of the world’s largest reserves of the mineral essential for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has become a focal point for Chinese companies seeking to secure supply chains and dominate the future of EV technology.
This strategic interest has resulted in significant Chinese investment in Indonesian mining and smelting operations. But the partnership goes beyond commodities. Chinese state-owned enterprises are deeply involved in transportation infrastructure across Indonesia—from high-speed rail projects to industrial zones—solidifying Beijing’s footprint in the archipelago nation.
The eight new memoranda of understanding signed during Li’s visit are expected to bolster this relationship further. While exact details have yet to be fully disclosed, they reportedly include commitments in tourism development, public health collaboration, media exchange programs, and direct foreign investment—offering opportunities for both economic stimulus and cultural diplomacy.
“These agreements demonstrate the mutual confidence both countries share,” said Hendra Wijaya, a Southeast Asia analyst based in Jakarta. “It’s not just about money—it’s about influence, legitimacy, and future strategic alignment.”
Maritime Tensions in the Background
Despite the display of warmth and cooperation, unresolved tensions continue to simmer just below the surface. Over the past several months, Indonesia has publicly acknowledged pushing back Chinese vessels from its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the North Natuna Sea, a region that overlaps with Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea.
Indonesia does not consider itself a party to the territorial disputes that have entangled other ASEAN nations like the Philippines and Vietnam. However, Jakarta has grown increasingly vocal about incursions into its EEZ, asserting its rights under international law and pushing back against Chinese “grey zone” tactics—non-military strategies aimed at incremental territorial assertion.
Indonesia’s measured response thus far suggests a desire to avoid direct confrontation while maintaining a firm stance on sovereignty. This balancing act is emblematic of the broader ASEAN approach, where countries often seek to preserve regional harmony without sacrificing national interests.
During the meeting with Li Qiang, maritime issues were not discussed publicly, underscoring the decision by both leaders to prioritize economic diplomacy over contentious security matters—at least for now.
Political Symbolism in a Shifting Regional Order
For President Prabowo, who is still in the early stages of his administration, the high-level meeting with Premier Li carries strong symbolic weight. It presents him as a statesman capable of steering Indonesia through the choppy waters of international diplomacy while attracting foreign investment and maintaining national pride.
“Prabowo understands the importance of being seen as an equal partner,” said Rini Aditya, a Jakarta-based political columnist. “He’s playing the long game—welcoming foreign capital but also carefully guarding Indonesia’s autonomy. It’s a very Javanese style of diplomacy: polite, strategic, and not easily cornered.”
From China’s perspective, engaging directly with Prabowo reinforces its commitment to a multipolar regional order where bilateral relationships are prioritized over Western-dominated multilateralism. With the United States and its allies increasingly active in Southeast Asia—through security pacts, trade agreements, and technology investments—Beijing is eager to counterbalance this influence through soft power and economic enticement.
What’s at Stake in the ASEAN Summit?
The ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, where China is expected to engage with ASEAN member states and dialogue partners like Japan, Australia, and the United States, will serve as the next stage for discussions about regional stability, trade, and digital integration.
China’s pre-summit diplomacy in Jakarta is likely to resonate at the summit table. Observers anticipate that Beijing will push for greater economic integration under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), while also attempting to sideline more confrontational discussions about the South China Sea.
Indonesia, with its tradition of non-alignment and diplomatic pragmatism, may play a moderating role—seeking consensus while advocating for adherence to international law and regional norms.
The outcomes of the summit could shape the next phase of Asia-Pacific cooperation and competition. As the global balance of power continues to shift, relationships like that between China and Indonesia will become increasingly pivotal—not just economically, but in terms of diplomacy and security.
Conclusion: Strategic Partners, Cautious Navigators
Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Jakarta has reaffirmed the importance of the China-Indonesia relationship at a critical juncture for both countries and the broader region. With a raft of new agreements in place and shared goals for peace and prosperity, the partnership appears poised to deepen.
Yet, as both nations chart their paths forward, they will need to navigate a complex set of dynamics: economic opportunity versus national interest, cooperation versus competition, and diplomacy versus dispute.
For now, China and Indonesia are choosing engagement over escalation—a choice that speaks to their shared interest in a stable, prosperous Southeast Asia. But as history has often shown, such balancing acts require constant attention and a willingness to adapt.
The coming ASEAN Summit will be a test of that balance—and a reflection of the delicate dance that defines 21st-century geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific.